Global Cattle Prices Rising, but What Does It Mean for Australia?
So, where does Australia fit in? Let’s break down the key insights from the latest RaboResearch Q2 Global Beef Quarterly Report and what it means for your business.
Global Market Overview: Strong Prices, Rising Tensions
While cattle prices across the globe are climbing, the tone is far from confident. Since President Trump returned to office in January 2025, trade tensions have crept back into global markets. New tariffs introduced in April and the threat of further retaliatory measures — particularly between the US, China, and Europe — are fuelling uncertainty.
Beef, being one of the US’s most widely traded agricultural commodities, is at risk of becoming collateral damage in these global power plays. Though current trade flows are largely intact, any escalation could shift the dynamics quickly, especially if Europe or China choose to retaliate.
Despite the backdrop of political unease, global demand remains strong — and supply is tightening.
Production Pressures: Less Beef, Higher Prices
RaboResearch expects global beef production to contract by 2% in 2025. Major exporters like Brazil and New Zealand are leading the decline with expected drops of 5% and 4% respectively, while production also dips in the US, Europe, and China.
One key driver: biosecurity issues. The Bluetongue virus continues to affect herds across Europe and the UK, while the New World screwworm in Mexico has led to US border closures and fears of domestic infestation. These disruptions are limiting cattle availability and supporting already elevated prices.
The Australian Outlook: Holding Steady in a Shifting Market
Among all this volatility, Australia stands out as one of the few regions expected to increase production in 2025.
While seasonal conditions remain mixed across the country, overall production is holding strong, supported by timely rainfall and stable saleyard prices. According to the report:
- The National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) has remained between 341c/kg and 378c/kg so far this year, one of the most stable pricing periods in the past decade.
- Queensland, the nation’s largest cattle-producing state, received widespread rain in late March and early April, allowing many producers to retain stock and slightly increase herd numbers.
- Meanwhile, southern Australia continues to offload numbers due to ongoing dry conditions, helping to balance national supply and price pressures.
This regional variability will play a key role in shaping how individual producers experience the market. But the broader takeaway? Australia's resilience, both in herd management and in global positioning — is paying off.
Export Advantage: Australia in the Global Supply Chain
As US beef becomes more expensive or less available, Chinese buyers are already turning to alternative suppliers including Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
This presents an opportunity for Australian exporters, especially with beef not yet a direct target in tariff negotiations. While added logistics costs may impact margins, Australia’s competitive position remains intact... for now.
What It Means for You
At James Bradford Rural, we’re watching these global shifts closely. For our clients across New South Wales and beyond, here’s what to keep in mind:
- Cattle prices are holding strong, with little volatility. ideal for planning ahead with confidence.
- Export demand could increase, especially from China, depending on how US trade talks progress.
- Weather and feed conditions remain critical, with northern and southern Australia showing very different short-term trends.
- Now may be a strategic time to invest, hold, or even expand herd numbers. depending on your seasonal outlook and cost base.
If you’d like to talk through what these market movements mean for your operation. or you’re considering buying, selling, or expanding - we’re here to help! Contact the team at JBR today.
Source: Beef Central and Rabo Research