Have we finally passed the peak of this mass exodus?

We’ve hit a point where the supply chain is just about saturated. You look at the producers in the impacted regions; they’ve either found agistment, shipped them off to the Channel Country, or they’ve just sold down. The reality is, there aren't many cattle left in these dry areas to move.

But here’s the thing, we aren't just going to hit a wall. We’re moving into the next phase of the cycle.

Once this big regional turnoff settles, we’re going to be looking at a very different environment come September or October this year. Those cattle that were relocated up north to Queensland? They’ll start coming back onto the market for processing then and I suspect the southern processors, who’ve been playing it close to home lately, are going to have to look north again to keep their plants running. Even with these freight rates being what they are, they’ll have no choice because the numbers just aren't there in the south to satisfy the demand.

We’re seeing the grids soften to another 10 to 20 cents down this week and it’s a reflection of how hard everyone has been pushing to clear the backlog. The plants have been working overtime, some even adding Saturday shifts, but we’re finally seeing the end of this current surge.

It’s interesting to see the results this week in Gunnedah, though. Despite the reduced yardings, we saw a full field of buyers and even some real competition from the restockers. Young cattle to the trade were actually 40 cents dearer. That tells me there’s still some resilience left in the market if you’ve got the right quality.

So, as we head into winter, it’s going to be a long haul, especially with the frost starting to hit the southern ranges. But the 'exodus' phase? That’s coming to a natural conclusion. Now, we wait to see how the market balances out once the dust settles.

‍