So, where does Australia fit in? Let’s break down the key insights from the latest RaboResearch Q2 Global Beef Quarterly Report and what it means for your business.
While cattle prices across the globe are climbing, the tone is far from confident. Since President Trump returned to office in January 2025, trade tensions have crept back into global markets. New tariffs introduced in April and the threat of further retaliatory measures — particularly between the US, China, and Europe — are fuelling uncertainty.
Beef, being one of the US’s most widely traded agricultural commodities, is at risk of becoming collateral damage in these global power plays. Though current trade flows are largely intact, any escalation could shift the dynamics quickly, especially if Europe or China choose to retaliate.
Despite the backdrop of political unease, global demand remains strong — and supply is tightening.
RaboResearch expects global beef production to contract by 2% in 2025. Major exporters like Brazil and New Zealand are leading the decline with expected drops of 5% and 4% respectively, while production also dips in the US, Europe, and China.
One key driver: biosecurity issues. The Bluetongue virus continues to affect herds across Europe and the UK, while the New World screwworm in Mexico has led to US border closures and fears of domestic infestation. These disruptions are limiting cattle availability and supporting already elevated prices.
Among all this volatility, Australia stands out as one of the few regions expected to increase production in 2025.
While seasonal conditions remain mixed across the country, overall production is holding strong, supported by timely rainfall and stable saleyard prices. According to the report:
- The National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) has remained between 341c/kg and 378c/kg so far this year, one of the most stable pricing periods in the past decade.
- Queensland, the nation’s largest cattle-producing state, received widespread rain in late March and early April, allowing many producers to retain stock and slightly increase herd numbers.
- Meanwhile, southern Australia continues to offload numbers due to ongoing dry conditions, helping to balance national supply and price pressures.
This regional variability will play a key role in shaping how individual producers experience the market. But the broader takeaway? Australia's resilience, both in herd management and in global positioning — is paying off.
As US beef becomes more expensive or less available, Chinese buyers are already turning to alternative suppliers including Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
This presents an opportunity for Australian exporters, especially with beef not yet a direct target in tariff negotiations. While added logistics costs may impact margins, Australia’s competitive position remains intact... for now.
At James Bradford Rural, we’re watching these global shifts closely. For our clients across New South Wales and beyond, here’s what to keep in mind:
- Cattle prices are holding strong, with little volatility. ideal for planning ahead with confidence.
- Export demand could increase, especially from China, depending on how US trade talks progress.
- Weather and feed conditions remain critical, with northern and southern Australia showing very different short-term trends.
- Now may be a strategic time to invest, hold, or even expand herd numbers. depending on your seasonal outlook and cost base.
If you’d like to talk through what these market movements mean for your operation. or you’re considering buying, selling, or expanding - we’re here to help! Contact the team at JBR today.
Source: Beef Central and Rabo Research
You might have seen a few heavy stories hitting the media recently. Just this week, some pretty stark data was released at Parliament House showing what we already feel on the ground: rural communities are doing it tough. Between unpredictable weather, overlapping natural disasters, and skyrocketing input costs, the pressure is higher than it’s been in a decade.
North-east NSW is facing a severe surge in cattle ticks and tick fever, and primary producers are bearing the financial and emotional brunt of the crisis. While official DPIRD data reports 285 infestations and 54 deaths this financial year, experienced cattlemen on the ground warn the real toll is well into the hundreds. Across the state, infested properties have more than doubled since late 2023, jumping from 218 to over 580.
If you’ve been watching the feeder markets over the last fortnight, you’ve likely noticed a massive shift in momentum. Feeder grids have surged by 30 to 50c/kg, pushing saleyard indicators to heights we haven't seen since 2022.
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