If you've been keeping a close eye on the yards here in Gunnedah this week, and the mood is shifting. We saw close to 6,000 head through the gates on Tuesday, down 1,300 from last week and honestly, that tells the story better than anything else. I think we’ve finally passed the peak of this mass exodus.
But here’s the thing, we aren't just going to hit a wall. We’re moving into the next phase of the cycle.
Once this big regional turnoff settles, we’re going to be looking at a very different environment come September or October this year. Those cattle that were relocated up north to Queensland? They’ll start coming back onto the market for processing then and I suspect the southern processors, who’ve been playing it close to home lately, are going to have to look north again to keep their plants running. Even with these freight rates being what they are, they’ll have no choice because the numbers just aren't there in the south to satisfy the demand.
We’re seeing the grids soften to another 10 to 20 cents down this week and it’s a reflection of how hard everyone has been pushing to clear the backlog. The plants have been working overtime, some even adding Saturday shifts, but we’re finally seeing the end of this current surge.
It’s interesting to see the results this week in Gunnedah, though. Despite the reduced yardings, we saw a full field of buyers and even some real competition from the restockers. Young cattle to the trade were actually 40 cents dearer. That tells me there’s still some resilience left in the market if you’ve got the right quality.
So, as we head into winter, it’s going to be a long haul, especially with the frost starting to hit the southern ranges. But the 'exodus' phase? That’s coming to a natural conclusion. Now, we wait to see how the market balances out once the dust settles.
