The Forces Behind the New Norm
While prices will rise and fall as they always do, the overall “new norm” between 2026–2033 is forecast to sit significantly higher than in the past.
So, what’s driving this shift, and what does it mean for your business?
1. Expansion in Processor Capacity
COVID-19 caused enormous disruption to Australia’s processing sector, with foreign workers forced home and delays in new plants coming online. Since late 2024, capacity has rebounded strongly, with visa worker numbers almost doubling since 2023 and meat worker roles now 84% higher than during the downturn. This expansion supports smoother market flow and stronger price stability.
2. Tighter Global Protein Supplies
Australia, Brazil, and the US are all in herd rebuild phases. Long-term, though, global livestock numbers are shrinking as land use changes and herds tighten. Fewer cattle and sheep on the ground worldwide means continued strong demand for what Australia produces.
3. Consumer Demand and Wages
Despite economic uncertainty, global demand for beef and lamb remains firm. Rising wages in key markets will support meat consumption over the next decade. Short-term, cattle prices could rise sharply by 30–35% before easing back.
4. Input Costs and Inflation
High input costs have squeezed producers in recent years, limiting expansion despite good seasons. With prices now stronger, enterprises are returning to profitability, finally incentivising herd rebuilds. Long-term, inflation and cattle prices remain closely linked.
What Producers Should Expect
- A Rally Before a Reset: Quilty expects cattle and lamb prices to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, followed by a decline of around 30% by 2028. Importantly, that “low” point is projected to be close to where prices sit today.
- A Higher Base Level: From 2028 to 2033, prices are expected to settle into a new norm comparable to today’s levels, but significantly higher than past long-term averages.
- The Risk of Black Swans: Major events like another global pandemic, a deep recession, or severe drought could temporarily disrupt markets, but fundamentals of supply and demand remain in Australia’s favour.
What This Means for Our Region
For producers across north-west NSW and beyond, this forecast offers both opportunity and a warning:
- Opportunity: Rising prices over the next 2.5 years can support profitability and growth.
- Warning: Be prepared for volatility. Avoid overextending during the highs and plan for the moderation that will follow.
At James Bradford Rural, we know these cycles all too well. Being “from the land” ourselves, we understand the challenges and opportunities you’re weighing right now whether you’re expanding, consolidating, or considering selling.
Final Word
The “new norm” for livestock prices won’t be a straight line up, but the long-term outlook is strong. By planning for both the rally and the reset, producers can position themselves for success in what looks to be a more sustainable pricing era.
Get in touch with the team at James Bradford Rural. We’re here to provide trusted advice and local knowledge when you need it most.
